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Inference problems for irreversible stochastic epidemic models
Published on Mar 07, 20161248 Views
We present a method based on Belief Propagation to study a series of inference problems on discrete dynamical cascade models based on partial and/or noisy observations of the cascades. The problems
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Chapter list
Bayesian inference of cascades on networks00:00
The patient zero or index case problem00:54
Related Problems03:12
The (discrete) SIR process on a network05:32
Approaches06:31
Naive Bayes (1/3)08:38
Naive Bayes (2/3)10:37
Naive Bayes (3/3)11:54
Parametrization of trajectories13:01
A factorized distribution15:03
Adding priors16:35
Belief propagation18:55
Results on random graphs - 121:51
Results on random graphs - 223:33
Time-evolving networks25:04
Inference of parameters25:58
Interleaved BP+GA27:26
Inference of network topology - 1 29:09
Inference of network topology - 230:13
Conclusions33:05